HELPLINE: 
Top takeaway. Risk assets extended their advance as Washington, Tehran and Muscat moved toward an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — an announcement is possible today. Oil fell, Treasury yields eased and US equities set fresh records. Energy remains the swing factor for both the Fed and the ECB into September.
MARKETS & MACRO
US equities closed sharply higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow at fresh record highs. The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to 7,737, the Dow added 907 points to 54,086 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.3%, supported by strong earnings and lower oil prices. Palantir rose close to 30% after results; AMD fell about 8% after hours on a modest earnings beat. Asia followed on Wednesday: the Kospi rose over 4% and the Nikkei 3.1%, while the Hang Seng slipped 0.4%.
Rates eased alongside oil: the US 10-year traded near 4.63–4.68%, with the 30-year at 5.20%. New York Fed President Williams said policy remains well positioned and expects inflation to ease in the second half; markets price roughly a 63% probability of a move at the September meeting. The dollar index held near 99.9. Gold traded around $4,080/oz as investors weighed the de-escalation path.
In Europe, second-quarter eurozone GDP came in better than expected, though growth is uneven across member states. The ECB, which raised rates 25bp in June (deposit rate 2.25%), has kept the door open for September; President Lagarde has flagged oil prices as the key variable. ECB projections see inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before returning toward target by 2028.
Data: Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading Economics, ECB. Levels as of 4–5 August 2026.
WEALTH & PRIVATE BANKING
UBS results underline wealth as the industry’s growth engine. UBS reported second-quarter net profit of $2.8bn, with underlying profit up 45% year on year, driven by wealth management. The bank has filed for a US banking licence to broaden its onshore wealth offering and is preparing a digital-asset trading service for select Swiss private clients. Separately, Berne has softened its capital proposals for UBS, though roughly $20bn of additional buffers is still indicated.
Wealth migration continues to reshape cross-border planning. The end of the UK non-dom regime and broader European tax tightening are prompting further family-office relocations; Henley forecasts a net loss of around 16,500 UK millionaires, with the UAE consolidating its position as a family-office hub. Asia is now the second-largest wealth region globally and hosts around 30% of the world’s single family offices. In the US, estate planning is centring on the $15m federal exemption — gifting, trusts and the treatment of illiquid assets remain the practical levers. Consolidation continues, with US firms acquiring UK wealth houses at pace.
WORLD NEWS
Strait of Hormuz. The US, Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the strait, with Washington aiming for an announcement as early as today. The plan would clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days ahead of a permanent arrangement between Oman and Iran. Secretary of State Rubio described “progress made … but not finality.” A deal would also restart the US–Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations.
Ukraine. A summit between Presidents Trump and Putin is planned for 15 August in Alaska; President Zelenskyy may join. Diplomatic activity follows earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi this year.
Advisory read-through. The energy channel remains the dominant macro variable: a confirmed Hormuz reopening would support the disinflation path and risk assets; any setback would re-price oil, rates and the September central-bank decisions. Positioning should stay measured either way.
SOURCES
Bloomberg — Stock Market Today, 5 Aug 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-04/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
CNBC — S&P; 500 futures / market live updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
CNBC — Treasury yields fall on Iran de-escalation hopes
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/us-treasury-yields-investors-bonds-war.html
Axios — US nears Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-deal-nears
Bloomberg — Iran says Hormuz talks underway
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/iran-says-hormuz-talks-underway-after-trump-calls-off-strikes
Al Jazeera — Iran–Oman negotiations in final stages
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/iran-says-negotiations-with-oman-over-strait-of-hormuz-in-final-stages
ECB — Monetary policy decisions & projections
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html
Funds Society — UBS record quarter driven by wealth management
https://www.fundssociety.com/en/news/business/ubs-delivers-another-record-quarter-driven-by-wealth-management-business/
Private Banker International — UBS US banking licence; Swiss capital rules
https://www.privatebankerinternational.com/news/ubs-us-banking/
IQ-EQ — Key predictions for family offices in 2026 (Henley data)
https://iqeq.com/insights/key-predictions-for-family-offices-in-2026/
CBS News via Yahoo — Zelenskyy may join Putin–Trump summit
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/zelenskyy-may-join-putin-trump-001736710.html
This briefing is prepared for internal advisory use. It is informational only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
